ICCE-SCE-001 Statistical Claims · Evidence Note

Episodic / ICCE

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18 August 2026 · Version 1.1

Statistical Claims

Evidence Base and Methodology

This note records the evidence, method and interpretation behind the principal workforce and recruitment-market statistics used by Episodic ICCE. Its purpose is to make the provenance of each number visible and to distinguish statistics published directly by third parties from estimates derived by Episodic for market-sizing purposes.

The figures are not all of the same evidential type. The recruitment-industry figures are reproduced from the Recruitment & Employment Confederation’s Recruitment Industry Status Report 2024/25. The 5m+ workforce figure and the approximately £125bn annual gross-earnings figure are Episodic estimates calculated from published HMRC/NatCen and Office for National Statistics inputs. Those derived figures should therefore travel with their method and qualifications rather than be presented as official counts.

Website figure Classification Evidence position
5m+ workers Derived estimate HMRC/NatCen estimated 5.3m adults in its unassigned-status workforce were highly or fairly likely to have worker status. ICCE uses 5.0m for market sizing.
~£125bn earnings Derived estimate Weighted estimate formed from the HMRC/NatCen pay distribution, indexed using ONS Average Weekly Earnings and applied to the rounded 5m population.
£40.6bn Published statistic REC estimate of recruitment-industry contribution to the UK economy in 2024.
1.6% of UK GVA Published statistic REC statement of the recruitment industry’s share of UK Gross Value Added in 2024.
76.7% Published statistic REC estimate of recruitment-sector GVA attributable to temporary and contract placements.
872,000 Published statistic REC estimate of temporary or contract workers on assignment on any given day in 2024.

Evidential treatment. Published figures retain the publisher, unit and reference period attached to them. Derived figures disclose the source population, calculation and material limitations. A derived estimate may be reasonable and reproducible without becoming an official statistic.

The separate ICCE proposition that most temporary-labour chains do not maintain shared transactional recordkeeping is not a finding of the REC report and is not supported by the industry figures listed above. It remains an ICCE market assessment and should be presented separately from the statistical claims addressed in this note.

ICCE-SCE-001 Workforce Estimate · 5m+

1. Estimated addressable workforce: 5m+

Derivation from HMRC/NatCen employment-status research

HMRC commissioned the National Centre for Social Research to examine employment status for rights purposes in the UK labour market and to update estimates of the worker population. The probability-based survey covered 8,767 UK adults aged 18 to 64. Fieldwork took place from 18 May to 18 June 2023 and respondents reported their position in April 2023.

Respondents first answered screening questions covering up to their three highest-paid jobs. Where the short screener could not assign an obvious employment-rights status to at least one job, the respondent entered what the report calls the “unassigned status workforce”. This is a study-specific description: it does not mean that the person lacked a legal employment status, only that the initial survey questions could not determine it.

The main survey then examined four working-relationship features—control, enterprise, integration and personal service—and used them to group respondents by their likelihood of having worker status. The population estimates relevant to the ICCE calculation are shown below.

Feature-analysis group Population estimate 95% confidence interval
Highly likely to be a worker 0.9m 0.7m–1.1m
Fairly likely to be a worker 4.4m 4.0m–4.8m
Combined published estimate 5.3m 4.8m–5.7m

0.9m highly likely + 4.4m fairly likely = 5.3m published central estimate → 5.0m ICCE market estimate

For website market-sizing purposes, ICCE rounds the published 5.3m central estimate down to 5.0m. The calculation does not add the report’s separately identified likely-self-employed population or its undetermined-status population. The website expression “5m+” reflects the scale supported by the 5.3m central estimate while avoiding a claim of false precision.

Important definitional limit. The HMRC report uses “worker” in its statutory umbrella sense, covering both limb (a) employees and limb (b) workers. The research does not establish that all 5.3m people are legally limb (b), temporary or contingent workers. It also does not constitute an individual legal determination of status.

The ICCE figure should therefore be described as an estimated UK temporary, contingent and non-standard addressable workforce, based on HMRC/NatCen research into less conventional working arrangements. It should not be described as an official count of temporary workers, agency workers or limb (b) workers.

Treatment Appropriate wording
Supported An estimated 5m+ UK temporary, contingent and non-standard addressable workforce, derived from HMRC/NatCen employment-status research.
Not supported Five million official temporary workers; five million agency workers; or five million legally determined limb (b) workers.

Primary source: HMRC / NatCen, Employment Status in the UK: 2023 Survey, research report 773. Report prepared August 2024 and published by HMRC on 27 May 2025.

ICCE-SCE-001 Annual Gross Earnings · ~£125bn

2. Estimated annual gross earnings: ~£125bn

Calculation from published pay bands and ONS earnings data

The approximately £125bn figure is an indicative market-sizing estimate rather than an official wage-bill statistic. It combines the HMRC/NatCen gross-pay distribution for the unassigned-status workforce, the rounded 5.0m ICCE population estimate and an index adjustment based on ONS whole-economy Average Weekly Earnings for total pay.

The published pay distribution and the values used in the ICCE weighted calculation are set out below. Closed bands are valued at their midpoint. The open-ended band above £125,140 is valued at £125,140, its lower boundary, rather than at an assumed higher value.

Published annual gross-pay band Published share Model value
Up to £5,00023%£2,500
Over £5,000 to £12,57016%£8,785
Over £12,570 to £20,00013%£16,285
Over £20,000 to £30,00018%£25,000
Over £30,000 to £40,00010%£35,000
Over £40,000 to £50,2704%£45,135
Over £50,270 to £60,0002%£55,135
Over £60,000 to £70,0001%£65,000
Over £70,000 to £100,0002%£85,000
Over £100,000 to £125,1401%£112,570
Over £125,1401%£125,140
Prefer not to say8%Excluded

The disclosed categories sum to 91% because the published percentages are rounded and 8% preferred not to state their pay. Normalising the disclosed categories and applying the values above produces weighted annual gross earnings of approximately £21,684 in the April 2023 reference period.

Σ (published share × model value) ÷ 91 disclosed percentage points = £21,684

Calculation step Input Result
Weighted annual earnings, April 2023Published pay bands£21,684
ONS total AWE index£749 ÷ £6481.1559
Indexed annual earnings£21,684 × 1.1559£25,064
ICCE market-sizing population5,000,0005.0m
Indicative annual gross earnings pool£25,064 × 5.0m£125.3bn

The website presents the result as approximately £125bn. The source calculation used ONS total Average Weekly Earnings of £648 in April 2023 and £749 in May 2026. ONS subsequently reported £755 for June 2026 on 18 August 2026. Substituting that later figure produces approximately £126.3bn. This is a useful sense-check of the rounded website figure, but it is not a silent alteration of the original calculation.

Material limitations. HMRC/NatCen publishes the pay distribution for the whole unassigned-status workforce rather than only the 5.3m highly or fairly likely worker subgroup. ONS Average Weekly Earnings is an employee-average measure that can be affected by workforce composition and is not a direct measure of individual pay rates. The resulting £125bn figure is therefore suitable as a transparent indicative earnings-pool estimate, but not as a directly observed temporary-labour wage bill.

ICCE-SCE-001 Published Industry Statistics · Evidence

3. Recruitment-industry statistics

Directly published figures from the Recruitment & Employment Confederation

The remaining four website figures are attributable directly to the Recruitment & Employment Confederation’s Recruitment Industry Status Report 2024/25, published on 8 December 2025. They describe the scale and composition of the recruitment industry and retain the 2024 reference period used by REC.

Figure Published meaning Interpretation boundary
£40.6bn Recruitment-industry contribution to the UK economy in 2024. GVA contribution, not industry turnover.
1.6% Recruitment industry’s share of UK Gross Value Added in 2024. Uses the same reference basis as the £40.6bn figure.
76.7% Proportion of recruitment-sector GVA attributed to temporary and contract placements. Share of recruitment-sector GVA, not of the whole UK labour market.
872,000 Estimated temporary or contract workers on assignment on any given day in 2024. Typical-day assignment stock, not annual unique workers.

REC states that its annual status report surveys members across the UK and that the economic modelling in the 2024/25 report was provided by Cebr. The accompanying press release states that the report was based on an online survey undertaken by 186 recruiters of different sizes from across the UK.

These figures are legitimate attributed industry estimates. They should not be recast as official government statistics or as measurements independently produced by ICCE. Where used, the source and reference year should remain clear. The 872,000 figure in particular should not be used as a substitute for the 5m+ addressable-workforce estimate: the two numbers measure different concepts, with one representing workers on assignment on a typical day and the other representing a broader market-sizing population.

Evidential conclusion

The four REC figures are directly traceable to their publisher. The 5m+ and approximately £125bn figures are reproducible from disclosed public inputs and are explicitly identified as Episodic estimates. Together they provide a legitimate basis for describing the scale relevant to ICCE, provided the attribution, reference period and stated limitations remain attached to them.

The strength of the evidence depends on preserving the difference between direct attribution and derivation. The REC figures can be quoted as REC’s published estimates. The workforce and earnings figures require the explanatory method given in sections 1 and 2. Neither treatment prevents the figures from being useful; it ensures that their use remains accurate.

The full public source register follows on page 5.

ICCE-SCE-001 Source Register · Review Position

4. Source register

Public publications supporting the claims and calculations

The following sources provide the published population estimates, pay distribution, earnings-index values and recruitment-industry figures used in this note. Links point to the publisher’s public landing page or statistical bulletin.

  1. HMRC / NatCen. Employment Status in the UK: 2023 Survey, research report 773. Published 27 May 2025; reference period April 2023. This provides the survey method, the 5.3m combined central estimate, its 4.8m–5.7m confidence interval and the gross-pay distribution for the unassigned-status workforce. View the HMRC publication.
  2. Office for National Statistics. Average weekly earnings in Great Britain: June 2023. This supports whole-economy total Average Weekly Earnings of £648 in April 2023, the base month used for the earnings-index calculation. View the June 2023 bulletin.
  3. Office for National Statistics. Average weekly earnings in Great Britain: July 2026. This supports whole-economy total Average Weekly Earnings of £749 in May 2026, the later input used in the original website calculation. View the July 2026 bulletin.
  4. Office for National Statistics. Average weekly earnings in Great Britain: August 2026. This supports the subsequent £755 June 2026 value used only as a current sense-check. View the August 2026 bulletin.
  5. Recruitment & Employment Confederation. Recruitment Industry Status Report 2024/25, published 8 December 2025. The public report page states the £40.6bn contribution, the 1.6% share of UK GVA, the 76.7% temporary and contract share of recruitment-sector GVA and the 872,000 typical-day assignment estimate. It also identifies Cebr as the provider of economic modelling. View the RISR 2024/25 page.
  6. Recruitment & Employment Confederation. Accompanying press release, published 8 December 2025. This independently restates the £40.6bn and 872,000 figures and records that the report used an online survey undertaken by 186 recruiters of different sizes from across the UK. View the REC press release.

Review position

The calculations and linked source statements were reviewed on 18 August 2026. The four REC figures are directly traceable to their publisher. The 5m+ and approximately £125bn figures are reproducible from the disclosed inputs and remain expressly identified as Episodic estimates.

Taken together, the figures provide a legitimate basis for describing the scale relevant to ICCE, provided their attribution, reference periods and limitations remain attached to them. Future updates to an underlying source should be recorded as a new review of the relevant calculation rather than substituted without explanation.

This note concerns evidential provenance and market sizing. It does not provide legal advice or determine the employment status of any individual.